The Arctic, once considered a place of peaceful cooperation, is now the scene of contemporary geopolitical tensions. Russia's war against Ukraine has disrupted the fragile balance of circumpolar cooperation, prompting Western states to review their security priorities in the region. While several European countries are updating their strategies, the European Union has not done so since 2021. Faced with these upheavals, it must refocus its action on the European Arctic and adopt a new, more strategic approach to Nordic regional cooperation.

The Turnberry trade agreement was widely perceived as a humiliation for Europeans, perhaps even the beginning of a 'century of humiliation'. Yet Europeans acted skilfully with the US administration. They secured changes in the US position on Ukraine and on the role of NATO. The trade agreement is not even unfavourable to European interests when one takes the trouble to analyse the details. But while the Europeans have saved the transatlantic relationship and gained some time, they must use this time to strengthen themselves and adapt their approach to the geopolitical and geo-economic changes in the world.

Moldova is heading into a decisive election, with the country's European ambitions at central to the issues at stake. Building on a reform programme launched in 2020, President Maia Sandu is presenting integration with the European Union as a necessity in the face of Russian pressure. The war in Ukraine has strengthened this stance, while exposing Moldova to greater instability. The pro-Russian opposition is exploiting the social and economic weariness of a population now faced with stringent reforms. The vote on 28 September will therefore be a moment of truth for the country's political future and its accession to the European project. Care must be taken to ensure that the election is not marred by foreign interference.

The European Union is facing a context marked by renewed geopolitical tensions and a challenge to the global balance established since the end of the Second World War. Between Russia's assertive stance and the uncertainty of American support, it must regain strategic cohesion. Supporting Ukraine appears to be a necessity, while strengthening its position within NATO is becoming essential to guarantee collective security. The objective is clear: to build European strategic autonomy so that it can act independently and defend its interests.

The European Defence Fund has brought military spending into the EU budget, with the ambition of building a genuine continent-wide defence industry. Initially providing new impetus, it has nevertheless experienced a number of setbacks: the decline of major projects, the rise of smaller programmes and the gradual disengagement of certain Member States. A discreet industrial restructuring is underway, driven by unexpected new stakeholders. It will be particularly interesting to see what place it will be given in the new multiannual financial framework for 2028-2034.

Agenda

The European Union's Arctic policy "in a hove-to position"

Europeans and Trump: dishonour, impotence or influence?

Moldova: legislative elections under high tension

The Four Challenges facing European Defence

Unsettling shifts in the European Defence Fund