The integration of the six Western Balkan countries into the European Union highlights a divide between leaders who favour a technical approach to mask their authoritarian tendencies and a public that is calling for strict oversight of the rule of law. Faced with endemic corruption, people expect the European institutions in Brussels to act as guardians of democratic values rather than merely providing financial support. Without transparent communication and a firm commitment to combating abuses of power, public disillusionment risks permanently undermining the European ideal in the region.

The outermost regions and overseas territories now occupy a central geostrategic and maritime position, providing the European Union with the world's largest exclusive economic zone and levers of technological, space and military power. These vulnerable areas are becoming laboratories for ecological transition and hubs of regional diplomacy, enabling them to counter imperialist ambitions whilst renegotiating their status towards greater autonomy. The future of this euro-insular relationship rests on a sovereign co-construction in which the islands' unique identity strengthens the continent's global influence and security in the face of new global centres of influence.

The energy crisis of 2026 highlights Europe's continuing dependence on hydrocarbons, despite an electricity sector that is already carbon-free, and is also due to the share of natural gas in the energy mix of the 27 Member States rising from around 14% to over 20% – an increase of 45%. This crisis transforms high oil prices into a strategic lever to accelerate energy independence and the energy transition. The European Union, which has already embarked on a rapid decarbonisation of its electricity mix, will no longer be able to 'manage' its oil dependency through repeated emergency measures. Only a structural reduction in hydrocarbon consumption will enable it to regain sustainable energy sovereignty.

Ukraine's security depends on the establishment of deterrent guarantees, ranging from material military support to the deployment of ground troops or conditional NATO membership. The credibility of these measures depends on Europe's strategic autonomy in the face of American unpredictability and the establishment of binding legal mechanisms. The 1994 Budapest Memorandum offers a useful reference point for what does not work. Now, a 'coalition of the willing comprising 26 countries' has been established to ensure that the necessary conditions are in place and that Russia will, when the time comes, respect any future ceasefire or peace agreement with Ukraine.

Against a backdrop of US isolationist withdrawal, India is moving away from its traditional non-alignment towards a pragmatic 'multi-alignment' approach. This strategic pivot makes the European Union a key partner, a relationship cemented by a historic free trade agreement in 2026. This rapprochement aims to ensure economic stability and the modernisation of India's defence capabilities in the face of regional pressure from China.

Agenda

What do the Balkan countries expect from the European Union?

What does the future hold for relations between the EU and its islands?

The 2026 oil crisis: an opportunity for Europe's energy transition

The credibility test: the security guarantees provided by Europe to Ukraine

The renewed strategic partnership between the EU and India and its significance in the shifting global context.